INTELLIGENCE // THREATS // SOUTHCOM // 2025
Threat Environment: Central & South America
SOUTHCOM threat summary — 35 countries assessed
Refugees / IDPs
refugees: 5 (2024 est.)
Terrorist Groups FBI TIER 1
Hizballah note: details about the history, aims, leadership, organization, areas of operation, tactics, targets, weapons, size, and sources of support of the group(s) appear(s) in the Terrorism reference guide
Refugees / IDPs
refugees: 9,175 (2024 est.) IDPs: 74 (2024 est.) stateless persons: 34 (2024 est.)
Trafficking in Persons
tier rating: Tier 2 Watch List Barbados did not demonstrate overall increasing efforts to eliminate trafficking compared with the previous reporting period and was downgraded to Tier 2 Watch List; for more details, go to: https://www.state.gov/reports/2025-trafficking-in-persons-report/barbados/
Refugees / IDPs
refugees: 13 (2024 est.)
Illicit Drugs
USG identification: major illicit drug-producing and/or drug-transit country (2025)
Refugees / IDPs
refugees: 2,287 (2024 est.) IDPs: 8 (2024 est.)
Terrorist Groups FBI TIER 1
Tren de Aragua (TdA) note: details about the history, aims, leadership, organization, areas of operation, tactics, targets, weapons, size, and sources of support of the group(s) appear(s) in the Terrorism reference guide
Illicit Drugs
USG identification: major illicit drug-producing and/or drug-transit country major precursor-chemical producer (2025)
Trafficking in Persons
tier rating: Tier 2 Watch List Bolivia did not demonstrate overall increasing efforts to eliminate trafficking compared with the previous reporting period and was downgraded to Tier 2 Watch List; for more details, go to: https://www.state.gov/reports/2025-trafficking-in-persons-report/bolivia/
Refugees / IDPs
refugees: 1,163 (2024 est.) IDPs: 12,070 (2024 est.)
Terrorist Groups FBI TIER 1
Hizballah; Tren de Aragua (TdA) note: details about the history, aims, leadership, organization, areas of operation, tactics, targets, weapons, size, and sources of support of the group(s) appear(s) in the Terrorism reference guide
Illicit Drugs
USG identification: major precursor-chemical producer (2025)
Trafficking in Persons
tier rating: Tier 2 Watch List Brazil did not demonstrate overall increasing efforts to eliminate trafficking compared with the previous reporting period and was downgraded to Tier 2 Watch List; for more details, go to: https://www.state.gov/reports/2025-trafficking-in-persons-report/brazil/
Refugees / IDPs
refugees: 331,097 (2024 est.) IDPs: 19,043 (2024 est.) stateless persons: 27 (2024 est.)
Refugees / IDPs
refugees: 41 (2024 est.)
Refugees / IDPs
refugees: 65 (2024 est.)
Terrorist Groups FBI TIER 1
Tren de Aragua (TdA) note: details about the history, aims, leadership, organization, areas of operation, tactics, targets, weapons, size, and sources of support of the group(s) appear(s) in the Terrorism reference guide
Refugees / IDPs
refugees: 15,788 (2024 est.) IDPs: 8,323 (2024 est.) stateless persons: 1,688 (2024 est.)
Terrorist Groups FBI TIER 1
National Liberation Army (ELN); Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia - People's Army (FARC-EP); Segunda Marquetalia (SM); Tren de Aragua (TdA) note: details about the history, aims, leadership, organization, areas of operation, tactics, targets, weapons, size, and sources of support of the group(s) appear(s) in the Terrorism reference guide
Illicit Drugs
USG identification: major illicit drug-producing and/or drug-transit country major precursor-chemical producer (2025)
Refugees / IDPs
refugees: 30,611 (2024 est.) IDPs: 7,264,767 (2024 est.) stateless persons: 5 (2024 est.)
Illicit Drugs
USG identification: major illicit drug-producing and/or drug-transit country major precursor-chemical producer (2025)
Refugees / IDPs
refugees: 249,521 (2024 est.) IDPs: 58 (2024 est.) stateless persons: 345 (2024 est.)
Trafficking in Persons
tier rating: Tier 3 Cuba does not fully meet the minimum standards for the elimination of trafficking and is not making significant efforts to do so, therefore, Cuba remained on Tier 3; for more details, go to: https://www.state.gov/reports/2025-trafficking-in-persons-report/cuba/
Refugees / IDPs
refugees: 171 (2024 est.) IDPs: 37,171 (2024 est.)
Refugees / IDPs
refugees: 5 (2024 est.)
Illicit Drugs
USG identification: major illicit drug-producing and/or drug-transit country (2025)
Refugees / IDPs
refugees: 1,004 (2024 est.) IDPs: 390 (2023 est.)
Terrorist Groups FBI TIER 1
Los Choneros; Los Lobos
Illicit Drugs
USG identification: major illicit drug-producing and/or drug-transit country major precursor-chemical producer (2025)
Refugees / IDPs
refugees: 30,241 (2024 est.) IDPs: 57,402 (2024 est.)
Terrorist Groups FBI TIER 1
La Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) note: details about the history, aims, leadership, organization, areas of operation, tactics, targets, weapons, size, and sources of support of the group(s) appear(s) in the Terrorism reference guide
Illicit Drugs
USG identification: major illicit drug-producing and/or drug-transit country major precursor-chemical producer (2025)
Refugees / IDPs
refugees: 392 (2024 est.) IDPs: 35,391 (2024 est.)
Refugees / IDPs
IDPs: 383 (2024 est.)
Terrorist Groups FBI TIER 1
La Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) note: details about the history, aims, leadership, organization, areas of operation, tactics, targets, weapons, size, and sources of support of the group(s) appear(s) in the Terrorism reference guide
Illicit Drugs
USG identification: major illicit drug-producing and/or drug-transit country major precursor-chemical producer (2025)
Refugees / IDPs
refugees: 4,676 (2024 est.) IDPs: 572,813 (2024 est.)
Refugees / IDPs
refugees: 79 (2024 est.)
Terrorist Groups FBI TIER 1
Gran Grif; Viv Ansanm note: details about the history, aims, leadership, organization, areas of operation, tactics, targets, weapons, size, and sources of support of the group(s) appear(s) in the Terrorism reference guide
Illicit Drugs
USG identification: major illicit drug-producing and/or drug-transit country (2025)
Trafficking in Persons
tier rating: Special Case; for more details, go to: https://www.state.gov/reports/2025-trafficking-in-persons-report/haiti/
Refugees / IDPs
refugees: 5 (2024 est.) IDPs: 1,041,229 (2024 est.)
Terrorist Groups FBI TIER 1
La Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13)
Illicit Drugs
USG identification: major illicit drug-producing and/or drug-transit country major precursor-chemical producer (2025)
Refugees / IDPs
refugees: 341 (2024 est.) IDPs: 100,637 (2024 est.)
Illicit Drugs
USG identification: major illicit drug-producing and/or drug-transit country (2025)
Illicit Drugs
USG identification: major illicit drug-producing and/or drug-transit country (2025)
Trafficking in Persons
tier rating: Tier 3 Nicaragua does not fully meet the minimum standards for the elimination of trafficking and is not making significant efforts to do so, therefore, Nicaragua remained on Tier 3; for more details, go to: https://www.state.gov/reports/2025-trafficking-in-persons-report/nicaragua/
Refugees / IDPs
IDPs: 89 (2024 est.)
Terrorist Groups FBI TIER 1
Tren de Aragua (TdA) note: details about the history, aims, leadership, organization, areas of operation, tactics, targets, weapons, size, and sources of support of the group(s) appear(s) in the Terrorism reference guide
Illicit Drugs
USG identification: major illicit drug-producing and/or drug-transit country (2025)
Refugees / IDPs
refugees: 10,801 (2024 est.) stateless persons: 928 (2024 est.)
Terrorist Groups FBI TIER 1
Hizballah note: details about the history, aims, leadership, organization, areas of operation, tactics, targets, weapons, size, and sources of support of the group(s) appear(s) in the Terrorism reference guide
Refugees / IDPs
refugees: 7,649 (2024 est.) IDPs: 141 (2024 est.) stateless persons: 5 (2024 est.)
Terrorist Groups FBI TIER 1
Shining Path (Sendero Luminoso); Tren de Aragua (TdA) note: details about the history, aims, leadership, organization, areas of operation, tactics, targets, weapons, size, and sources of support of the group(s) appear(s) in the Terrorism reference guide
Illicit Drugs
USG identification: major illicit drug-producing and/or drug-transit country major precursor-chemical producer (2025)
Refugees / IDPs
refugees: 546,699 (2024 est.) IDPs: 83,441 (2024 est.) stateless persons: 32 (2024 est.)
Refugees / IDPs
IDPs: 146 (2024 est.)
Refugees / IDPs
refugees: 5 (2024 est.)
Trafficking in Persons
tier rating: Tier 2 Watch List the government did not demonstrate overall increasing efforts to eliminate trafficking compared with the previous reporting period, therefore Saint Lucia was downgraded to Tier 2 Watch List; for more details, go to: https://www.state.gov/reports/2025-trafficking-in-persons-report/saint-lucia/
Refugees / IDPs
refugees: 5 (2024 est.)
Trafficking in Persons
tier rating: Tier 3 Sint Maarten does not fully meet the minimum standards for the elimination of trafficking and is not making significant efforts to do so, therefore, Sint Maarten remained on Tier 3; for more details, go to: https://www.state.gov/reports/2025-trafficking-in-persons-report/sint-maarten/
Refugees / IDPs
refugees: 3,241 (2024 est.)
Terrorist Groups FBI TIER 1
Tren de Aragua (TdA)
Refugees / IDPs
refugees: 24,134 (2024 est.)
Refugees / IDPs
refugees: 8 (2024 est.)
Refugees / IDPs
refugees: 32,149 (2024 est.) IDPs: 33 (2024 est.) stateless persons: 5 (2024 est.)
Terrorist Groups FBI TIER 1
National Liberation Army (ELN); Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia-People's Army (FARC-EP); Segundo Marquetalia (SM); Tren de Aragua (TdA) note: details about the history, aims, leadership, organization, areas of operation, tactics, targets, weapons, size, and sources of support of the group(s) appear(s) in the Terrorism reference guide
Illicit Drugs
USG identification: major illicit drug-producing and/or drug-transit country major precursor-chemical producer (2025)
Trafficking in Persons
tier rating: Tier 3 Venezuela does not fully meet the minimum standards for the elimination of trafficking and is not making any efforts to do so, therefore, Venezuela remained on Tier 3; for more details, go to: https://www.state.gov/reports/2025-trafficking-in-persons-report/venezuela/
Refugees / IDPs
refugees: 20,911 (2024 est.) IDPs: 2,338 (2024 est.)
Assessment Note
Threat categories aligned with FBI/DOJ reporting standards. Tier 1 threats include counterterrorism, counterintelligence, cyber, and WMD proliferation. Data sourced from CIA World Factbook 2025 (OPEN SOURCE // OSINT).
Threat categories aligned with FBI/DOJ reporting standards. Tier 1 threats include counterterrorism, counterintelligence, cyber, and WMD proliferation. Data sourced from CIA World Factbook 2025 (OPEN SOURCE // OSINT).