INTELLIGENCE // THREATS // NORTHCOM // 2025

Threat Environment: North America

NORTHCOM threat summary — 4 countries assessed

Overview Regional Dashboard NORTHCOM Overview
Bahamas, The
Illicit Drugs
USG identification: major illicit drug-producing and/or drug-transit country (2025)
Refugees / IDPs
refugees: 30 (2024 est.) IDPs: 30 (2024 est.)
Canada
Terrorist Groups FBI TIER 1
Hizballah; Islamic State of Iraq and ash-Sham (ISIS) note: details about the history, aims, leadership, organization, areas of operation, tactics, targets, weapons, size, and sources of support of the group(s) appear(s) in the Terrorism reference guide
Illicit Drugs
USG identification: major precursor-chemical producer (2025)
Refugees / IDPs
refugees: 561,551 (2024 est.) IDPs: 1,981 (2024 est.) stateless persons: 8,166 (2024 est.)
Mexico
Terrorist Groups FBI TIER 1
Gulf Cartel (CDG); Jalisco Cartel New Generation (CJNG); La Mara Salvatruche (MS-13); Northeast Cartel (CDN); The New Family Michoacana (LNFM); Sinaloa Cartel; United Cartels (CU) note: details about the history, aims, leadership, organization, areas of operation, tactics, targets, weapons, size, and sources of support of the group(s) appear(s) in the Terrorism reference guide
Illicit Drugs
USG identification: major illicit drug-producing and/or drug-transit country major precursor-chemical producer (2025)
Refugees / IDPs
refugees: 417,546 (2024 est.) IDPs: 390,250 (2024 est.) stateless persons: 13 (2024 est.)
United States
Terrorist Groups FBI TIER 1
al-Qa'ida; Hizballah; Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)/Qods Force; Islamic State of Iraq and ash-Sham (ISIS); La Mara Salvatruche (MS-13); Lashkar-e Tayyiba (LeT); Tren de Aragua (TdA) note: details about the history, aims, leadership, organization, areas of operation, tactics, targets, weapons, size, and sources of support of the group(s) appear(s) in the Terrorism reference guide
Refugees / IDPs
refugees: 3,619,495 (2024 est.) IDPs: 21,737 (2024 est.)
Assessment Note
Threat categories aligned with FBI/DOJ reporting standards. Tier 1 threats include counterterrorism, counterintelligence, cyber, and WMD proliferation. Data sourced from CIA World Factbook 2025 (OPEN SOURCE // OSINT).